Andy White Anthropology
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All the Cool Kids are Doing it (whether they know it or not)

4/17/2014

 
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I just got back reviews for a (rejected) grant application.  It didn’t surprise me that the grant was rejected, as demand for research dollars far outweighs supply and the large majority of these proposals are not funded.  Rejection isn’t the best feeling, but you take it and move on.  I’ll find some other way to do the work and address the questions at some point in the future.   

What struck me about the reviews was not the rejection but the skepticism about the model-based analysis of archaeological data that I advocated.  I wasn’t asking for money for that part of the work, so I didn’t spend much of the limited space I had to detail the approach I would take.  But I did mention that I’d be using agent-based modeling as an analytical tool to try to connect patterns in household-level archaeological remains to the gendered activity patterns that might have been associated with those households.  (To be clear:  I’m under no illusions that this will be a simple thing to do, but it is something we’ve got to continue to wrestle with.  We say over and over again how important the sexual division of labor is to hunter-gatherer families and societies, but we don’t really seem to be too worried about it in terms of its archaeology).  

One reviewer wrote that I was arguing that I could simply “model my way out of the problem.”  This is an interesting thing to say.  First, I think it communicates a strange hostility/skepticism toward the particular kind of modeling that I do.  Based on previous experience, I would guess that this kind of negative reaction to agent-based modeling is probably rooted in ignorance or misunderstanding about complex systems methods and theory.  That’s fine – that’s part of the professional battlefield that I chose for myself.  What bugs me more is that the statement seems to signal a fundamental misunderstanding about the existence and roles of models in archaeology in general.

A model is a representation of something, plain and simple.   A model can specify how variables fit together, how one part of a system connects or affects another, what behaviors produce a certain kind of material signature, etc.  It is an abstraction of reality that captures some aspect of reality.  The distinction between an archaeologist who is “using models” and one who is not is a false one: all archaeologists use models.  We use models to make the leap between the static remains we have in front of us and the human behaviors that produced those remains.  We are all trying to “model our way out of the problem:”  the problem is that we cannot directly observe the people, societies, dynamics, and behaviors we are trying to understand.  That's archaeology.

The real distinction is not based on whether one uses models in archaeology, but rather what kind of models one chooses to use.  Many of the models that archaeologists use are mental models that are based on logic or some intuitive understanding of how things “should” be related.  Joshua Epstein (2008) makes a useful distinction between implicit models and explicit models: 

“. . . an implicit model in which the assumptions are hidden, their internal consistency is untested, their logical consequences are unknown, and their relation to data is unknown. But, when you close your eyes and imagine an epidemic spreading, or any other social dynamic, you are running some model or other. It is just an implicit model that you haven't written down (see Epstein 2007).”

The paper from which that quote is taken is available from JASSS here.  It is short and non-technical.

Humans (and other creatures) use implicit models constantly to navigate the world.  When you look down the street and see a truck coming, you decide if you have time to safely cross the street before the truck gets there based on a model that lets you relate the key variables to one another (the truck’s distance, speed, acceleration, your speed, the width of the street, etc.).  You can do all this without knowing the precise values for the variables or doing all the division and multiplication in your head:  the model is a representation that gives you an estimate that is “good enough” (your life depends on it, after all).  Similarly, a dog does not need to do the vector math in order to catch the Frisbee from the air:  she uses a mental model to determine how/where to intercept the Frisbee. 

Implicit models work great a lot of the time for doing archaeology.  But they are not all we need.  They can help us avoid getting hit by a truck, but are not so good for sending people to the Moon and back. Some problems require a different kind of modeling.

Archaeology is stuck in several spots.  In many cases, we’re hampered by equifinality problems (multiple processes produce the same outcome).  Maybe getting at gender in the archaeology of hunter-gatherers is one of those spots.  How do we move forward?  I suggest that abandoning models as altogether useless would be a much less effective strategy than adjusting the kind of model you’re using.  How about trying something that fits the problem and gives you a chance to break the logjam?  If you want to get a screw out of a piece of wood, try picking up a screwdriver rather than a hammer.  I know it is a time-honored tradition to bang on the screw with a hammer and then give cautionary tale talks about how you shouldn't do that, but there may be room for another approach.  Just a suggestion. 

Yes, I’m going to try to “model my way out of the problem.”


"Slicing the Pie" of Neandertal Family Life

4/11/2014

 
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Part two of my foray into the Middle Paleolithic . . .

The phrase slicing the pie refers to a tactical method of systematically clearing an area hidden by an obstacle:  you move around the obstacle and take care of one slice at a time.  That’s often a better option than just jumping right past the obstacle and exposing oneself to whatever unknown terrible things might lurk around the corner.  Slicing the pie is a method of breaking a big problem up into several smaller problems with the added stipulation that the problems must be addressed in a specific sequence in order for the method to be successful.

My 2014 SAA presentation is my attempt to work through the first slice of the pie of Neandertal family life (and take a peek around the corner to see what the next couple of slices might look like).  As I discussed a little bit in this post, I'm using an agent-based model to explore how the high adult mortality regimes suggested by the Atapuerca-SH and Krapina assemblages might have affected the behavioral conditions under which hunter-gatherer populations were demographically viable. Agent-based modeling lets you create representations of plausible human systems unlike those we can observe ethnographically.  It lets you understand how those systems are structured and work, and it provides a basis for developing expectations that can be compared to archaeological and fossil data.  We could, of course, jump right past those kinds of nuts and bolts questions and argue about whether or not the symbolic contractual aspects of Neandertal male-female pair bonds were like those of “modern” humans.  That’s a great piece of the pie to argue about, and I like those arguments as much as the next person.  But I think that’s pretty far around the corner.   Developing a basic understanding of the structure, organization, and behaviors of Neandertal domestic groups is a better piece of pie to start with. 

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I’ve still got some work to do on the presentation, but I thought I’d go ahead and post it here. [Edit:  I've removed the draft version of the presentation - the version that I presented at the SAAs is here].  Some of the organization and a few details might change before the meetings, but the basic content and ideas will remain the same.  I’m hoping that “pre-posting” this helps me do the things I go to conferences to do: learn something, exchange ideas, and meet people who are interested in similar topics or approaches.  Maybe it will mitigate the downsides of both posters (does anyone actually read them?) and talks (how much can you get across in 15 minutes?).  I’m betting I can generate more interest in my work by posting it and giving a 15 minute presentation than I can by just giving the 15 minute presentation.  Or maybe the real benefit will be that I won’t be sitting in my hotel room the night before still trying to organize my Powerpoint.  Even if that’s the only benefit there is . . . I’ll still take it.

I'm not done with this question, and I don't claim to have "solved" anything.  But I’m generally happy with what I’ve managed to do so far:  getting the presentation in shape has helped me clarify my thinking a bit, and working part of this into a publication will be on my summer agenda.  I’m going to try to make the case (by showing rather than assertion) that a complex systems approach gives you a fighting chance to understand the structure and organization of domestic life during the Paleolithic.  Paleolithic domestic life is, of course, a really big pie.  Understanding the implications of high adult mortality in terms of population viability and family-level behaviors during the Middle Paleolithic is just the first slice.  To cover in depth all the ideas that are in this presentation is potentially a dissertation- or book-level project: there's a lot of room here.  I’ve already written my dissertation, so that’s out.  We’ll see where the rest of this goes.  Please let me know if you’re interested in thinking about ways to address domestic life during the Paleolithic -- there may be a conference symposium and/or an edited volume in the future.  


Do You Recognize This Man?

4/11/2014

 
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I came across this portrait of a Middle Paleolithic father and child.  Does anyone know who the artist is?  It's a really nice piece of work and I'd like to use it in a presentation if possible.  The reward for information leading to the artist is substantial: a line in the acknowledgments of a powerpoint at the 2014 SAAs.  That and about $5000 will put you in a mint 1970s AMC Pacer. You're welcome.

Addition:  Carline VanSickle identified the artist as Sonia Cabello, earning her a line in my acknowledgements and my best wishes for the wonderful times she will one day have with her 1979 AMC Pacer, should she ever choose to purchase one. 

Brachiosaurus for Sale; Will Trade for Access to HPC

4/8/2014

 
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I’m a fan of metaphors.  A good metaphor can be a tool for clarifying a complicated idea.  And I find that the process of finding that good metaphor  -- that metaphor that so simply captures and communicates subtleties that get lost in a long explanation --  is also worthwhile.  It is a process of distillation:  your brain pares away the clutter until only the most important or meaningful elements of an idea remain.  Sometimes it’s just as difficult as it is important to get to the essence of an idea.  Metaphors help with that.

I’m going to make a renewed effort to sell my brachiosaurus sculpture.  Have a look here at how I built it: started without much of plan, completed in fits and starts over about a year.  It is sitting in my back yard now, perhaps eight feet (2.5m) tall at the head and who knows how heavy.  Weathering is making it look better, I think, taking some of the gleam off the chrome and dampening the brightness of the painted pieces.

My brachiosaurus feels unfinished to me, and I think it probably always will. (The brachiosaurus drawing to the right, which I like, is not by me, but by this person.)  I built it to come apart to make it easier to move (both out of the garage and from place to place).  I’m still patting myself on the back for recognizing early on that it would either need to come apart or be moved outside horizontally.  But the choice to make the legs detachable – to build in some functional flexibility – meant that I couldn’t construct them with the kind of fluidity and fullness that I wanted.  And that has always bummed me out a little.  The moment of triumph was getting out of the garage.  Since then, the personal affection has faded. 

So I’m going to try to sell it. I’ve flirted with the idea several times over the last two years, and two times there has been enough expression of interest that I was optimistic that we’d consummate the deal and Betty would find a new home.   So far it hasn’t happened. But maybe this is the year – maybe this is the year that someone pulls the trigger and decides that, yes, it is time we had a large metal dinosaur in the garden.  Trust me - it's the right call. Buy now and avoid a lifetime of regret.  Do it.

Do it for science.  I would put the money toward a high performance computer that I could use as a dedicated machine for running computational experiments.  Running these experiments is a significant aspect of my work.  Some of the models I’m using are not that computationally expensive to run, but some are.  Space and population size are the keys.  Small populations in non-spatial models, like some of the demographic models I've been working with lately, aren't that bad.  But fill an area the size of the Eastern Woodlands with hunter-gatherer populations at a reasonable density and the millions of probabilistic calculations that take place each step slow the action down to sub-glacial speeds.  Models like the ones I used in my dissertation – with detailed, spatially-situated representations of birth, death, marriage, mobility, kinship, social networks, and social learning – take a long time to run and use a lot of computer power.  I don’t have the resources available to me right now to run those.  Thus my research using those high amperage models is on hold until I can find a way to create or tap into the infrastructure I need.  There are advantages to not being a graduate student anymore, and then there are disadvantages.  This is one of the disadvantages.

There are several “good” metaphors lurking in all of this, but I have yet to sort them out.  I know, however, that it’s time to commit and move on.  My kids like the metal sculptures (more at this unmaintained website), and they will be sad to see the brachiosaurus go.  For them it is a tangible and symbolic thing that makes our backyard different from all the others.  I like it for that reason, too.  But for me it is also other things.  It is a symbol of how you can build something from nothing, how the joy can come from the process rather than the result, how the necessity of compromise can produce lingering dissatisfaction, and, perhaps, how effort in one currency can be used to bootstrap capacities in another.  Maybe the “good” metaphor will crystalize when it’s gone.

Neandertal "Families," Mortality, and the OY Ratio: SAA 2014

4/3/2014

 
I decided to formally wade into the cloudy waters of the Middle Paleolithic at this year's SAA meetings with a presentation titled Marriage, Mortality, and Middle Paleolithic Families: Implications of a Model-based Analysis (the abstract is here). I'm using an agent-based model (ABM) to probe how the harsh adult mortality regimes suggested for the Middle Paleolithic might have affected the behavioral conditions under which human populations were demographically viable.  The model I'm using is the same as the one used in the AJPA paper with the addition of an age-specific mortality schedule that more-or-less mimics that suggested by fossil assemblages from Atapuerca and Krapina.  If you're interested in the nitty-gritty of the model, full code and description are available at openABM.org.

I became interested in the OY ratio (the ratio of older to younger adults) after reading Caspari and Lee's (2004) paper and the debate that followed.  While my results in the AJPA paper showed that there were clear relationships between the demographic characteristics of living populations (in the model) and the OY ratio of assemblages of dead individuals from those populations, thousands of model runs under widely varying conditions of fertility and mortality did not produce OY ratios nearly as low as those reported by Caspari and Lee for pre-Upper Paleolithic samples. But the representations and parameters in the ABM were based on data from ethnographic hunter-gatherers. 
What happens if we impose a mortality regime like that suggested by Atapuerca and Krapina?

Under a regime of high mortality (mortality schedule 3; MS 3 in the figures - the dotted lines are following José Maria Bermúdez de Castro & María
Elena Nicolás' 1997 paper), model populations are still "viable" if fertility is high enough.  And lower OY ratios (i.e., in the Neandertal range) are associated with higher fertility populations.  All things being equal, however, significantly larger population sizes are required for viability when we impose a harsh mortality regime.  This makes logical sense, of course, but it also seems possibly at odds with some of the peculiarities of the Neandertal fossil/archaeological record.  So I'm using the model to investigate the effects of behavioral differences (in terms of pair-bonding behaviors, "family"-like organization, etc.) on demographic viability. 
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I'm still working my way through the model data.  I hope to be done with the presentation early (wouldn't that be a novel idea) so I can put it up here before the meetings, but I'm not sure I'll get there.  The presentation will be in the afternoon session on Paleolithic Europe on 4/26/2014. 

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    Andy White

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